Latest assessment of China's new electrolytic alum

2022-07-31
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The latest assessment of China's new electrolytic aluminum production capacity in 2017

Aladdin (ALD) reassessed the new production capacity in 2017. Taking into account the impact of the supply side reform policy, the current actual progress of the enterprise and the financial power of the enterprise, it is considered that the annual new electrolytic aluminum production capacity is 4.04 million tons, of which 1.96 million tons have been built in the first half of the year and 2.08 million tons are to be built in the second half of the year

Table 1 estimation of China's new electrolytic aluminum production capacity in 2017

data source: Aladdin (ALD)

from the perspective of the distribution of new projects, in addition to traditional advantageous regions such as Shandong, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, 5, Shaanxi, the experimental software under the all Chinese Windows platform, Southwest China has begun to rise, especially the projects of Hualei new material, Suyuan investment, Laibin Yinhai phase II in Guangxi, as well as Guizhou Huaren new material Zunyi Aluminum Co., Ltd. China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity layout began to show a new trend

from the progress of new projects, the impact of supply side reform on new capacity is gradually emerging. In terms of quarters, in the first quarter, new projects made rapid progress because the policy only stayed on rumors and did not land. In the second quarter, policies were implemented and implemented to specific enterprises. The speed of illegal capacity under construction and planned capacity slowed down. It is expected that this situation will continue into the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, it is expected that the policy tension will be eased slightly, and after the replacement of capacity indicators is accelerated, some new projects will be completed and put into operation before the end of the year

from the perspective of the affiliated enterprises of the new project, Shandong Weiqiao and Xinfa have basically completed the expected new increment in the first half of the year. Restricted by the policy, it is difficult to achieve even if there is a construction plan within the year. Inner Mongolia Jinlian aluminum and Chuangyuan metal are actively purchasing indicators at the government level. The investment speed of the carbonization layer theory, fire performance theory and inorganic organic hybrid reaction theory proposed to control fire from the source depends on the availability of indicators. Xinjiang Xi'an Aluminum Co., Ltd., Tianlong Mining Co., Ltd. and Xinjiang Qiya Co., Ltd. are also affected by the policy, and the production capacity contribution in the year will be lower than the previous estimate. In the second half of the year, the major contributors to the production capacity are several new projects of Chalco. The second phase of Huayun new materials was put into operation on May 1, and the first phase was put into operation on May 26. Huaren new materials was planned to be put into operation on August 6, Zhongrun aluminum was planned to be put into operation on September 30, and Hualei new materials was planned to be put into operation on August 15. The 144 tanks of Zunyi aluminum's 350kA upgraded 400kA 150000 ton technical transformation project have been in normal operation. The software also includes analysis tools for structural units, The new 400kA project is planned to be launched in the third quarter. The industrial adjustment and layout of Chalco in recent years have gradually shown results. New projects are either equipped with units or supported by policies, and all comply with the regulations. Therefore, the competitiveness will gradually become obvious under the background of supply side reform

on the whole, the impact of the supply side reform on the capacity expansion of the aluminum industry has begun to react. We believe that some projects under construction will not be ready for production within this year, such as Xingren Denggao coal power aluminum integration project, Gansu Zhongrui aluminum, Xinjiang Jiarun aluminum, etc. the specific production time needs to be reassessed depending on the later compliance

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